{"id":48424,"date":"2014-10-29T04:44:00","date_gmt":"2014-10-29T03:44:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stockportal.hu\/?p=48424"},"modified":"2014-10-28T18:13:53","modified_gmt":"2014-10-28T17:13:53","slug":"a-monetaris-tanacs-nem-valtoztatott-az-alapkamaton-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gazdasagportal.hu\/index.php\/a-monetaris-tanacs-nem-valtoztatott-az-alapkamaton-2\/","title":{"rendered":"A monet\u00e1ris tan\u00e1cs nem v\u00e1ltoztatott az alapkamaton"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>A monet\u00e1ris tan\u00e1cs az elemz\u0151i v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1soknak megfelel\u0151en nem v\u00e1ltoztatott az alapkamat 2,1 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos szintj\u00e9n &#8211; k\u00f6z\u00f6lte a jegybank kedden.<\/strong><br \/>\n<!--more--><\/p>\n<div class=\"ads-in-post1\"><div id=\"gazdasagportal.hu_fullbanner_wideboard\"><\/div>\r\n<\/div>\n<p>    A test\u00fclet legut\u00f3bb j\u00faliusban cs\u00f6kkentett kamatot, az akkori 20 b\u00e1zispontos m\u00e9rs\u00e9kl\u00e9ssel az alapkamat t\u00f6rt\u00e9nelmi m\u00e9lypontra, 2,1 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra ker\u00fclt. Ugyanakkor bejelentett\u00e9k azt is, hogy v\u00e9get \u00e9rt a k\u00e9t \u00e9ven \u00e1t tart\u00f3 kamatcs\u00f6kkent\u00e9si ciklus, \u00e9s a jegybank arra rendezkedik be, hogy az alapkamat 2015 v\u00e9g\u00e9ig ezen a szinten marad.<br \/>\n    Az MNB 2012 augusztus\u00e1ban kezdett bele monet\u00e1ris enyh\u00edt\u00e9si ciklus\u00e1ba, akkor az alapkamat 7 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kon \u00e1llt, az\u00f3ta \u00f6sszesen 490 b\u00e1zisponttal cs\u00f6kkent az ir\u00e1nyad\u00f3 r\u00e1ta.<br \/>\n    A monet\u00e1ris tan\u00e1cs a keddi d\u00f6nt\u00e9shez f\u0171z\u00f6tt indokl\u00e1s\u00e1ban kiemelte, hogy a jelenleg rendelkez\u00e9sre \u00e1ll\u00f3 inform\u00e1ci\u00f3k alapj\u00e1n az alapkamat aktu\u00e1lis szintje \u00f6sszhangban van az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s c\u00e9l k\u00f6z\u00e9pt\u00e1v\u00fa el\u00e9r\u00e9s\u00e9vel \u00e9s a re\u00e1lgazdas\u00e1g ennek megfelel\u0151 m\u00e9rt\u00e9k\u0171 \u00f6szt\u00f6nz\u00e9s\u00e9vel. Az el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sek felt\u00e9teleinek teljes\u00fcl\u00e9se mellett a k\u00f6z\u00e9pt\u00e1v\u00fa infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s c\u00e9l el\u00e9r\u00e9se a jelenlegi laza monet\u00e1ris kond\u00edci\u00f3k tart\u00f3s fenntart\u00e1s\u00e1nak ir\u00e1ny\u00e1ba mutat.<br \/>\n    A tan\u00e1cs k\u00f6zlem\u00e9nye szerint az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s nyom\u00e1s tart\u00f3san m\u00e9rs\u00e9kelt maradhat. Az alacsony infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s k\u00f6rnyzethez hozz\u00e1j\u00e1rul a visszafogott k\u00fclpiaci infl\u00e1ci\u00f3, a nyersanyag\u00e1rak \u00e9s az import\u00e1lt infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 alakul\u00e1sa, a kihaszn\u00e1latlan kapacit\u00e1sok nagys\u00e1ga, az alacsony b\u00e9rdinamika, az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sok m\u00e9rs\u00e9kl\u0151d\u00e9se, valamint a szab\u00e1lyozott energia\u00e1rak t\u00f6bb l\u00e9pcs\u0151ben v\u00e9grehajtott cs\u00f6kkent\u00e9se.<br \/>\n    A hazai re\u00e1lgazdas\u00e1gi \u00e9s munkapiaci t\u00e9nyez\u0151k tov\u00e1bbra is dezinfl\u00e1ci\u00f3s hat\u00e1s\u00faak, az alacsony infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 tart\u00f3san fennmaradhat. Azonban a konjunkt\u00fara \u00e9l\u00e9nk\u00fcl\u00e9s\u00e9vel a bels\u0151 kereslet oldal\u00e1r\u00f3l \u00e9rkez\u0151 dezinfl\u00e1ci\u00f3s nyom\u00e1s fokozatosan gyeng\u00fcl, \u00e9s az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 az el\u0151rejelz\u00e9si horizont m\u00e1sodik fel\u00e9ben \u00e9rheti el az \u00e1rstabilit\u00e1snak megfelel\u0151 3 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k k\u00f6r\u00fcli \u00e9rt\u00e9ket.<br \/>\n    A monet\u00e1ris tan\u00e1cs meg\u00edt\u00e9l\u00e9se szerint a m\u00e9rs\u00e9kelten alacsonyabb k\u00fcls\u0151 kereslet mellett is tov\u00e1bb folytat\u00f3dhat a gazdas\u00e1g n\u00f6veked\u00e9se. A hazai gazdas\u00e1g b\u0151v\u00fcl\u00e9se a kor\u00e1bbiakn\u00e1l kiegyens\u00falyozottabb szerkezetben val\u00f3sulhat meg, \u00e9s a bels\u0151 kereslet n\u00f6veked\u00e9shez val\u00f3 hozz\u00e1j\u00e1rul\u00e1sa egyre jelent\u0151sebb lehet. Az uni\u00f3s forr\u00e1sok n\u00f6vekv\u0151 felhaszn\u00e1l\u00e1sa, illetve a n\u00f6veked\u00e9si hitelprogram k\u00f6vetkezt\u00e9ben is enyh\u00fcl\u0151 hitelkorl\u00e1tok el\u0151seg\u00edtik a beruh\u00e1z\u00e1sok \u00e9l\u00e9nk\u00fcl\u00e9s\u00e9t. A h\u00e1ztart\u00e1sok fogyaszt\u00e1sa is fokozatosan \u00e9l\u00e9nk\u00fclhet, f\u0151k\u00e9nt a rendelkez\u00e9sre \u00e1ll\u00f3 j\u00f6vedelem re\u00e1l\u00e9rt\u00e9k\u00e9nek v\u00e1rhat\u00f3 b\u0151v\u00fcl\u00e9se \u00e9s az egyre m\u00e9rs\u00e9keltebben jelentkez\u0151 ad\u00f3ss\u00e1gle\u00e9p\u00edt\u00e9si k\u00e9nyszer eredm\u00e9nyek\u00e9nt.<br \/>\n    A k\u00f6zlem\u00e9ny kit\u00e9r arra is, hogy a nemzetk\u00f6zi befektet\u0151i hangulat t\u00f6bbnyire kedvez\u0151tlen\u00fcl alakult az elm\u00falt h\u00f3napban, ami f\u0151k\u00e9nt a ki\u00e9lez\u0151d\u0151 geopolitikai konfliktusokkal \u00e9s a kedvez\u0151tlen konjunktur\u00e1lis kil\u00e1t\u00e1sokkal magyar\u00e1zhat\u00f3. A hazai kock\u00e1zati mutat\u00f3k t\u00f6bbs\u00e9ge nem v\u00e1ltozott \u00e9rdemben, haz\u00e1nk s\u00e9r\u00fcl\u00e9kenys\u00e9g\u00e9t cs\u00f6kkenti a tart\u00f3san magas k\u00fcls\u0151 finansz\u00edroz\u00e1si k\u00e9pess\u00e9g \u00e9s az ennek nyom\u00e1n cs\u00f6kken\u0151 k\u00fcls\u0151 ad\u00f3ss\u00e1g\u00e1llom\u00e1ny. A monet\u00e1ris tan\u00e1cs \u00e9rt\u00e9kel\u00e9se szerint a nemzetk\u00f6zi p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi k\u00f6rnyezet alakul\u00e1s\u00e1val kapcsolatos bizonytalans\u00e1g \u00f3vatos monet\u00e1ris politik\u00e1t indokol.<br \/>\n    A keddi \u00fcl\u00e9s r\u00f6vid\u00edtett jegyz\u0151k\u00f6nyve 2014. november 12-\u00e9n 14 \u00f3rakor jelenik meg.(MTI)<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p><div id=\"gazda-4106339554\" class=\"gazda-tartalomban gazda-entity-placement\"><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-layout-key=\"-6t+ed+2i-1n-4w\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1959107119989764\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"4008251320\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div class=\"text\">\n<a href=\"http:\/\/stockportal.hu\/index.php\/category\/vegtorlesztes-devizahitel-forintositas\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-46988\" src=\"http:\/\/stockportal.hu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/devizahitel_100_621.jpg\" alt=\"devizahitel_100_62\" width=\"100\" height=\"63\" \/><\/a><font SIZE=\"+2\"><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/stockportal.hu\/index.php\/category\/vegtorlesztes-devizahitel-forintositas\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"background-color: #71091f;\"><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\">Devizahitel \u2013 Forintos\u00edt\u00e1s<\/span> <\/span><\/a><\/strong><\/font><br \/>\n<a http:\/\/stockportal.hu\/index.php\/category\/vegtorlesztes-devizahitel-forintositas\/\">Egyre jobban k\u00f6zelit a nap, amikor megt\u00f6rt\u00e9nik a devizahitel k\u00e1rosultak megseg\u00edt\u00e9se&#8221; <strong>Friss h\u00edrek a devizahitel t\u00e9m\u00e1b\u00f3l<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;<\/p>\n<div class=\"text\">\n<a href=\"http:\/\/stockportal.hu\/index.php\/category\/fontos-esemenyek\/ebola-jarvany\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-46988\" src=\"http:\/\/stockportal.hu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/ebola_100_63.jpg\" alt=\"devizahitel_100_62\" width=\"100\" height=\"63\" \/><\/a><font SIZE=\"+2\"><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/stockportal.hu\/index.php\/category\/fontos-esemenyek\/ebola-jarvany\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"background-color: #71091f;\"><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\">Ebola j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny<\/span> <\/span><\/a><\/strong><\/font><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/stockportal.hu\/index.php\/category\/fontos-esemenyek\/ebola-jarvany\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Terjed a j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny,n\u0151 a fesz\u0171lts\u00e9g,  a korm\u00e1nyok egyre komolyabb int\u00e9zked\u00e9seket hoznak&#8221; <strong>Friss h\u00edrek az Ebola j\u00e1rv\u00e1nyr\u00f3l<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;<\/p>\n<div class=\"text\">\n<a href=\"http:\/\/stockportal.hu\/index.php\/category\/fontos-esemenyek\/ukran-valsag\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-46988\" src=\"http:\/\/stockportal.hu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/orosz_ukran_100_63.jpg\" alt=\"Ukr\u00e1n_vals\u00e1g\" width=\"100\" height=\"63\" \/><\/a><font SIZE=\"+2\"><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/stockportal.hu\/index.php\/category\/fontos-esemenyek\/ukran-valsag\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"background-color: #71091f;\"><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\">Ukr\u00e1n v\u00e1ls\u00e1g<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/strong><\/font><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/stockportal.hu\/index.php\/category\/fontos-esemenyek\/ukran-valsag\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">B\u00e1r elm\u00e9letileg t\u0171zsz\u00fcnet van \u00e9rv\u00e9nybe, de folyamatosak a harcok&#8221; <strong>Friss h\u00edrek az Ukr\u00e1n-Orosz visz\u00e1lyr\u00f3l<\/strong><\/a>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A monet\u00e1ris tan\u00e1cs az elemz\u0151i v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1soknak megfelel\u0151en nem v\u00e1ltoztatott az alapkamat 2,1 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos szintj\u00e9n &#8211; k\u00f6z\u00f6lte a jegybank kedden.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":19950,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[146,19],"tags":[286,154,82],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gazdasagportal.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48424"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gazdasagportal.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gazdasagportal.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gazdasagportal.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gazdasagportal.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48424"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/gazdasagportal.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48424\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":48427,"href":"https:\/\/gazdasagportal.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48424\/revisions\/48427"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gazdasagportal.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19950"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gazdasagportal.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48424"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gazdasagportal.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48424"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gazdasagportal.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48424"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}