{"id":104667,"date":"2018-04-19T11:43:19","date_gmt":"2018-04-19T09:43:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/gazdasagportal.hu\/?p=104667"},"modified":"2018-04-19T11:43:19","modified_gmt":"2018-04-19T09:43:19","slug":"javitottak-novekedesi-elorejelzesuket-nemet-gazdasagkutatok","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gazdasagportal.hu\/index.php\/javitottak-novekedesi-elorejelzesuket-nemet-gazdasagkutatok\/","title":{"rendered":"Jav\u00edtott\u00e1k n\u00f6veked\u00e9si el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s\u00fcket n\u00e9met gazdas\u00e1gkutat\u00f3k"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Megemelt\u00e9k idei \u00e9s j\u00f6v\u0151 \u00e9vi n\u00e9metorsz\u00e1gi n\u00f6veked\u00e9si el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s\u00fcket a vezet\u0151 n\u00e9met gazdas\u00e1gkutat\u00f3 int\u00e9zetek.<\/strong><!--more--><\/p>\n<div class=\"ads-in-post1\"><div id=\"gazdasagportal.hu_fullbanner_wideboard\"><\/div>\r\n<\/div>\n<p>Az \u00f6t vezet\u0151 n\u00e9met gazdas\u00e1gkutat\u00f3 int\u00e9zet (DIW Berlin, ifo Institut, IW Kiel, IWH \u00e9s RWI) 0,2 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kponttal megemelte idei \u00e9s j\u00f6v\u0151 \u00e9vi n\u00e9met GDP-n\u00f6veked\u00e9si el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s\u00e9t. \u0150szi progn\u00f3zisukban 2,0 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos n\u00f6veked\u00e9st jeleztek az idei \u00e9vre \u00e9s 1,8 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kosat 2019-re. Mostani, tavaszi progn\u00f3zisukban pedig az idei \u00e9vre 2,2 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos n\u00f6veked\u00e9st, j\u00f6v\u0151re pedig 2,0 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kosat v\u00e1rnak.<br \/>\n&#8222;Z\u00f6kken\u0151mentesen folytat\u00f3dik a n\u00e9met gazdas\u00e1gi fellend\u00fcl\u00e9s, a kapacit\u00e1skihaszn\u00e1lts\u00e1g n\u00f6veked\u00e9se miatt azonban lassan m\u00e1r &#8216;ritkulni kezd a leveg\u0151&#8217; a gazdas\u00e1gi szerepl\u0151k k\u00f6r\u00fcl&#8221; &#8211; foglalta \u00f6ssze az int\u00e9zetek k\u00f6z\u00f6sen k\u00e9sz\u00edtett progn\u00f3zis\u00e1nak legf\u0151bb meg\u00e1llap\u00edt\u00e1sait Timo Wollmersh\u00e4user, a m\u00fcncheni ifo int\u00e9zet konjunkt\u00farakutat\u00e1si r\u00e9szleg\u00e9nek a vezet\u0151je.<br \/>\n<div class=\"ads-in-post2\"><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-layout-key=\"-6t+ed+2i-1n-4w\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1959107119989764\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"4008251320\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\nAz int\u00e9zetek a foglalkoztat\u00e1s n\u00f6veked\u00e9s\u00e9t \u00e9s a munkan\u00e9lk\u00fclis\u00e9gi r\u00e1ta cs\u00f6kken\u00e9s\u00e9t vet\u00edtik el\u0151re. A foglalkoztatottak sz\u00e1ma a 2016-os 43,6 milli\u00f3r\u00f3l \u00e9s a tavalyi 44,3 milli\u00f3r\u00f3l az id\u00e9n 44,9 milli\u00f3ra, j\u00f6v\u0151re pedig 45,3 milli\u00f3ra emelkedik. A munkan\u00e9lk\u00fclis\u00e9gi r\u00e1ta pedig, ami 2016-ban m\u00e9g 6,1 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k volt \u00e9s tavaly 5,7 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra cs\u00f6kkent, az id\u00e9n tov\u00e1bb esik, 5,2 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k lesz, j\u00f6v\u0151re pedig 4,8 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k.<br \/>\nAz infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 az idei gyeng\u00fcl\u00e9s ut\u00e1n j\u00f6v\u0151re ism\u00e9t n\u00f6vekedik a vezet\u0151 gazdas\u00e1gi szakemberek megl\u00e1t\u00e1sa szerint. A k\u00e9t \u00e9vvel ezel\u0151tti 0,5 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos \u00e9s a tavalyi 1,8 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos fogyaszt\u00f3i \u00e1rindex eszerint az id\u00e9n 1,7 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra cs\u00f6kken, 2019-ben pedig 1,9 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k lesz.<br \/>\nA n\u00e9met foly\u00f3 fizet\u00e9si m\u00e9rleg (a javak, szolg\u00e1ltat\u00e1sok \u00e9s \u00e1tutal\u00e1sok forgalm\u00e1nak az egyenlege) a 2017-es 262,6 milli\u00e1rd eur\u00f3r\u00f3l az id\u00e9n 277,0 milli\u00e1rd eur\u00f3ra emelkedik, j\u00f6v\u0151re pedig 284,5 milli\u00e1rd eur\u00f3ra, azaz a brutt\u00f3 hazai term\u00e9k sorrendben 8,0, 8,2 \u00e9s 8,0 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k\u00e1ra.<br \/>\nA vil\u00e1ggazdas\u00e1gi n\u00f6veked\u00e9st a n\u00e9met kutat\u00f3k 3,4 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kosra becs\u00fclik az idei \u00e9vre, 0,3 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kponttal magasabbra az \u0151szi progn\u00f3zisban jelzettn\u00e9l. J\u00f6v\u0151re a n\u00f6veked\u00e9si \u00fctem 3,1 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra lassul, ami 0,2 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kponttal haladja meg az el\u0151z\u0151 progn\u00f3zisban megadottat.<br \/>\nAz eur\u00f3\u00f6vezetben a n\u00f6veked\u00e9s a magas kapacit\u00e1skihaszn\u00e1lts\u00e1g mellett is tartja lend\u00fclet\u00e9t, holott egyre n\u00f6vekszik a hi\u00e1ny a szakk\u00e9pzett munkaer\u0151ben. A n\u00f6veked\u00e9si \u00fctem azonban emiatt hosszabb t\u00e1von lassulni fog. Az idei 2,3 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos GDP-n\u00f6veked\u00e9s j\u00f6v\u0151re 1,9 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra cs\u00f6kken. Az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 az id\u00e9n 1,5 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k, j\u00f6v\u0151re 1,7 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k lesz.\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0(MTI)<br \/>\n<a title=\"Hely megnyit\u00e1sa\" href=\"http:\/\/www.diw.de\/sixcms\/detail.php?id=582565\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">http:\/\/www.diw.de\/sixcms\/detail.php?id=582565<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p><div id=\"gazda-2373040680\" class=\"gazda-tartalomban gazda-entity-placement\"><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-layout-key=\"-6t+ed+2i-1n-4w\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1959107119989764\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"4008251320\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Megemelt\u00e9k idei \u00e9s j\u00f6v\u0151 \u00e9vi n\u00e9metorsz\u00e1gi n\u00f6veked\u00e9si el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s\u00fcket a vezet\u0151 n\u00e9met gazdas\u00e1gkutat\u00f3 int\u00e9zetek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[246],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gazdasagportal.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104667"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gazdasagportal.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gazdasagportal.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gazdasagportal.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gazdasagportal.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=104667"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/gazdasagportal.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104667\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":104668,"href":"https:\/\/gazdasagportal.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104667\/revisions\/104668"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gazdasagportal.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=104667"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gazdasagportal.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=104667"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gazdasagportal.hu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=104667"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}